I have been watching "TV Tokyo BIZ" since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


I like this program.


This is because the commentator appears to have studied and researched the subject with great care.


I do not believe that commentators need necessarily be "experts".


Rather, I find it more useful to have a hypothesis (a humble hypothesis) derived from it by a person outside the field, using up-to-date news sources and quantitative figures (including history).


専門家、論者、有識者といわれる皆さん ―― 『うるさい』

To all the so-called experts, commentators, and pundits -- "Shut up.


Please don't bring your "sad" or "terrible" or "righteous" or whatever into me.


I am not interested in a single millimeter of your comments laced with your desires (ideals, ideals).


What I look for in a news commentary is "matters explained with figures" and an objective "view" derived from those facts.


It is a normal forecast, normally guided by normal thinking, just as water flows to a lower place.



In "TV Tokyo BIZ," before the war began, the following commentary was given


"Based on objective information, it is common to assume that there will be no invasion of Ukraine.


"Because it is impossible to maintain effective control over the whole of Ukraine in terms of troops and financial resources.


"Still, wars throughout history have generally started with the unexpected. We don't know what will happen this time either."


Right now, that is exactly what the program predicted would happen.


The figures used in "TV Tokyo BIZ" were very rough, about the number and type of personnel and armaments, the area of Ukraine, and the expenses required to continue the war, but they were very clear to me.


To all of you who are called experts, orators, or intellectuals.


If you are going to talk about this war, please first study enough to be able to slur these figures before discussing them.



For example, Ukraine's current population is 44 million.


And just over 2 million people have now fled the country.


In other words, only less than 5% of the population is able to escape.


he majority of the population has not been able to leave the country.


Poland has a population of 40 million, Romania 20 million, Slovakia 5 million, and Moldova less than 3 million.

ここに、ウクライナの人口の半分、2000万人が逃げこむことができるか? ―― できるわけがない。

Can 20 million people, half of Ukraine's population, flee here? -- It can't be done.

そして、国内に残っている4000万人の反ロシア感情(一部、親ロシア派もいる)で一致する国民を、ロシアは実効支配できるか? ―― かなり難しいだろう。

And can Russia effectively control the 40 million people remaining in the country who are united in their anti-Russian (and some pro-Russian) sentiments? -- It will be very difficult.

出典: 北大西洋条約機構(NATO)について(https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/100156880.pdf)


Here's how "TV Tokyo BIZ" describes it (I just spent 5 minutes looking up the numbers above).


Therefore, I keep track of the news regarding the invasion of Ukraine only on "NHK" and "TV Tokyo BIZ".


Posted by ebata